{"id":290,"date":"2025-12-17T16:24:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T14:24:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/notes.yadin.com\/?p=290"},"modified":"2026-03-04T12:24:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T10:24:29","slug":"ai-hype","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/yadin.com\/notes\/ai-hype\/","title":{"rendered":"Cutting through the AI hype"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n

\u201cAI is one of the most important things humanity is working on. It is more profound than, I dunno, electricity or fire\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014Sundar Pichai (2018)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

AI is everywhere\u2014especially on social media: \u201c30 AI Prompts You Can\u2019t Live Without!\u201d, \u201cIs Gemini 3 Really Better Than GPT-5.2?\u201d, \u201c5 New Must-Have AI Tools for Productivity.\u201d Even when I browse categories that have nothing to do with technology, the algorithm, in its wisdom, keeps suggesting notes and posts about AI. The prevailing expert consensus is that we are in the midst of an AI revolution<\/a>, which some say rivals the Industrial Revolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I can\u2019t help feeling that we have been here before. Do you remember virtual and augmented reality? blockchain and NFTs? What about 3D printing? autonomous cars? 3D displays? All of these, and many other promising technologies, went through the hype cycle and emerged on the other side as modest products, if that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are we seeing a technological revolution at the scale of the Information Revolution or the Industrial Revolution? The Industrial Revolution not only transformed production, but it also changed how we work and live. It laid the foundation for the modern economy, society, and government. The Information Revolution gave us computers, the Internet, social media, and smartphones. It changes how we create, share, and access knowledge, and again, how we work and live. AI technology has not reached that level of social impact\u2014at least, not yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
I prompted Gemini AI to create a visual image of itself<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AI enthusiasts tell us that AI is not like the other emerging information technologies we have seen; it is different, bigger. That may be true; there is certainly a lot of money being invested in AI<\/a>. But virtual reality was pretty big. In 2021, Facebook rebranded itself as Meta<\/em>, saying that the metaverse\u2014a series of connected virtual reality social spaces\u2014is the future<\/a>. Four years and more than $70 billion in lost investments later, Meta is moving on from virtual reality<\/a>. Microsoft, Google, and Apple<\/a> also poured billions into virtual and augmented reality research, with very little return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI already has a substantial cultural and social impact, they say. Well, it certainly does. However, less than 5 years ago, celebrities were spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on digitally signed drawings of bored apes in funny costumes, and El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender. Those ape NFTs are now relatively worthless<\/a>, and El Salvador rolled back its Bitcoin legislation and had to be bailed out by the IMF<\/a>. Technologies can make an impact for a while, the question is whether that impact lasts, and AI technology is still new.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But AI is revolutionary and cool, they tell us. That is also true. It simulates human conversation amazingly; it does wonders with images and videos; it does a great job analyzing text, translating, and writing code. But every new hyped technology seems revolutionary and cool. Not long ago, we thought that with 3D printing, we would all print our meals in Star Trek<\/a><\/em>-style replicators<\/a>. We thought Segways would make cars obsolete; then we thought all cars would drive themselves. We thought we would all be wearing augmented reality glasses. We watched Avatar<\/em> in 3D and thought that the two-dimensional screen is dead. Remember that tomorrow morning, when you cook\u2014not print\u2014your breakfast, and drive yourself to work to stare at your ordinary flat monitor all day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They claim that AI technology has a low barrier to entry; in just a few years, it was adopted by a billion people worldwide. Well, that is true, and it is probably better and faster than most previous emerging technologies. However, it must be noted that the AI industry is currently providing very costly and valuable services for almost no money. As of mid-2025, AI pioneer and market leader OpenAI is losing$128 million every day. This is not financially sustainable for OpenAI or the AI industry as a whole. Business models will have to readjust, and that shift will inevitably affect usage and adoption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, AI enthusiasts say that because the technology is not limited to a single application or industry, its potential is almost limitless. That is a valid point. AI can influence many areas of human activity because it operates at the level of information, giving it a more systemic and foundational impact than other technologies. However, potential alone does not guarantee success; the challenge is realizing it. Virtual reality, for example, had vast potential to transform human perception and interaction, but it has so far failed to live up to that potential due to implementation and adoption challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

These issues represent just the tip of the AI iceberg. Current AI implementations face challenges in predictability, accountability, bias, control, and privacy. There are security issues, concerns about resource drain and environmental impact, economic and labor market problems, and more. While some of these problems can be addressed, others may pose enduring ethical and legal concerns. Many are calling for AI regulation<\/a>, including prominent AI industry figures, an issue that is becoming political<\/a>. Any of these concerns could impede AI development, and a convergence of several could derail it entirely. Just ask a biologist about genetic engineering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am not an AI skeptic in the sense of those who claim AI is fake or fear it will take over the world. However, I think that announcing an AI revolution or declaring that the era of AI has begun<\/a> is premature. To move beyond the information era, the AI industry would need to overcome its many challenges and achieve a transformative breakthrough, such as artificial general intelligence or super-intelligence<\/a>. I hope that happens, but I am not sure it will. I think this makes me an AI pragmatist.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n \n \n \n <\/svg>45\n |<\/span>\n \n \n \n <\/svg>\n 1<\/span>\n <\/span>\n |<\/span>\n Published: Dec. 17, 2025\n |<\/span>\n Updated: Mar. 4, 2026 |<\/span> Topics: AI<\/a>, Culture<\/a> |<\/span> Follow<\/a>\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

continue to this week’s featured note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n